counting cards

Counting Cards

The movie 21 was about counting cards. The Kevin Spacey character Micky Rosa an MIT professor trained some bright MIT student to count cards. The main character is named Kevin Lewis. Kevin is a student recruited to be member of the team. These students traveled to Las Vegas and used their new skills in the casinos. The team is very successful and earns large amounts of money. After beating the casino for sometime, the establishment finally catches on and shuts down the operation.

The movie is based on the book Bringing Down The House by Ben Mezrich, The Micky Rosa is a compilation of three founding team members, Bill Kaplan, JP Massar, and John Chang. Actually members of the team included Mike Aponte, Jeff Ma and Sarah McCord.

How did the team beat the casino by using card counting? The basic principal is to use the history of cards played. A player aware of the history knows the probability of the remaining cards to be high cards or low cards. The odds shift from the house to the player when there are more high cards remaining. A player can increase his wager and potentially profit during periods when he is statistically likely to win.

The image above is from a free online game that teaches you how to count. You can select the method and the computer will count along with you, allowing you to check your count as you play.

Counting Cards

Before you can count cards, you must learn basic strategy. Basic strategy means that given any dealer total an player total, you know statistically what is the best action for the player to take. Player actions are stay, hit, double down and spit. Basic strategy was created by looking at every possible dealer hand and player hand and mathematically working out which action results in the players best odds.

The image here is showing part of the basic strategy. The columns represents the dealers card that is showing. The rows represent the players hand. There are additional charts for when a player has an ace or a pair.

D = double down = blue
H = hit = green
P = split = yellow
S = stay = red

The entire purpose is to minimize the house advantage. Even using basic strategy the house still has an edge. But that edge is kept as low as possible.

Basic strategy does not rely on counting or the history of the game.

You are usually allowed to sit at the table with a cheat sheet of basic strategy. That means you don't have to memorize it.

Have you have ever heard of a player complaining about another player, for example saying he took my card? Mostly likely the one complaining is saying the other player didn't adhere to basic strategy, and took a hit when they should have stayed or vice versa. It is a way of saying someone doesn't know what they are doing

Counting Cards

Wizard Ace Five is the simplest method of counting cards. It offers almost no statistical advantage to the player, but is better than not counting at all. It may serve as an introductory method to get you used to counting.

The idea is to keep track of only the ace cards and five cards. The ace cards are the most beneficial cards for the player. If few have been played, then the likelyhood of getting ace is high.

A five card on the other hand is the most beneficial card for the dealer. When the dealer as 12, a 5 will make 17. Also, if the dealer has 16 and must hit, the 5 will produce 21.

When the cards are shuffled and placed in the shoe, you start or reset you running count to zero. The running count is the number you must keep track of in your head. It represents with the odds of wining a hand. Every time a five card is played, you add 1 to the running count. Every time an ace is played you subtract one. When the running count is zero or less than zero, the dealer has the advantage. When the count is above zero the player has the advantage.

You must increase your bet when you have the advantage. You should play the table minimum, and only increase the bet when you have better odds of wining. Your bet should be double the running count times the minimum. For example, let's assume $5 minimum. At zero or less the wager is $5. At a count of 1, the wager is 2 x 1 x $5 = $10. At a count of 2, it is 2 x 2 x $5 = $20. At 3 it is $30.

As you can see it is possible for the wager to become quite high and remain high for several hands. This is the only way to take statistical advantage. You must have a large enough bankroll to maintain this betting scheme.

Again, there is little use for this method except to learn the concepts of running counts and wagering

Counting Cards

The Red Seven is a very basic strategy. It sacrifices statistical advantage for ease of use. Counting is a difficult tasks, and you must remember that a basic system counted correctly is far better than a complex system counted incorrectly.

Red Seven is a unbalanced count. Balanced system usually require you to divide the running count by the number of decks left in the house. This is difficult for two reasons. One you must learn to estimate how many decks have been discarded in order to determine how many decks are left. Second, doing division in your head while trying to pay attention to the game is tricky. Unbalanced systems don't require division and make the process of counting easier.

Running count
You begin your count at zero minus 2 times the decks in the shoe. For one deck, the running count starts at -2. For eight decks it is -16

Pivot Point
Zero is the pivot point. At zero or less the dealer has the advantage. Above zero the player has the advantage

Card Values
For each card played, you add its value to the running count. Card values of 2 through 6 are +1. 8 and 9 have zero value. 10 through ace have a -1 value. The black sevens (spades and clubs) have zero value. The red sevens (hearts and diamonds) have a +1 value. Thus the name red seven.

Wager
There a 2 wagers, low and high. The low wager is table minimum. The high wager is 10 times the low wager. So for a $5 table the high wager would be $50. Anytime the running is above zero, you bet the high wager. Otherwise bet the low wager. Your bankroll must be able to support this kind of wagering. It is recommended that the high wager should be no more than 2 percent of your funds. This way you should be able to withstand a losing streak and recover. Note that any statistical advantage only appears after playing many hands for several hours.

Counting Cards

Contrary to the movie, counting is not illegal. It is only illegal to use some aid. If you count using your head only, you are within your rights. The worst that will happen is the establishment will refuse to allow you to play. There are no backrooms and thugs.

Players are spotted as counters by increasing their wager. If a player is winning consistently when he wagers high, the pit boss or other employee may watch the game and keep a count. If they notice you increase the wager when the count goes positive, they will have identified you as a counter. If you lose, they'll likely let you keep counting. If you win, the pit boss may instruct the dealer to shuffle more frequently, thus restarting your running count and making you go back to the minimum wager. If you win repeatedly, they may refuse to allow you play. This was the end result for many of the real MIT players. The casinos simply refused to allow them to play.